TL;DR
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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, following declines in the two prior months. Current assessments of business and employment conditions weakened, and all three measures of consumers’ six-month expectations declined.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, from 88.6 in August, as consumers grew more pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions and the outlook for the next six months. The preliminary survey covered September 1-23, a period that included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the organization.
The Present Situation Index, which tracks consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, dropped 7.9 points to 109.3. Net views of current business conditions—the share describing conditions as good minus the share describing them as bad—fell 3.4 percentage points to minus 1.9%. The Conference Board said the shift was driven largely by more respondents describing business conditions as bad. This was the first time appraisals of current business conditions had turned negative since September 2024.
Consumers’ views of the labor market also softened, though the measure remained positive. The labor market differential, calculated as the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying they are hard to get, declined 2.5 percentage points to plus 1.7%. The Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline. Its three components all worsened: net expectations for business conditions fell to minus 9.5%, labor market expectations to minus 14.4%, and household income expectations to plus 2.5%.
The results also showed rising price and interest-rate expectations. Average and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months each increased 0.3 percentage points, reaching 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise over the coming year increased 5.2 points to 68.4%. Consumers still generally expected stock prices to rise, but their optimism moderated, the report said.
Weaker Outlook Across Key Measures
The September decline indicates that consumers reported less confidence in both present conditions and the near-term outlook. The fall in the Expectations Index matters because it extended a three-month slide and included more pessimistic views of business conditions and job availability. The income outlook remained positive on a net basis, but its measure also fell, suggesting consumers expected household incomes to rise less strongly than in previous months.
For retailers and other businesses, the survey offers a read on how consumers perceive the economy, but it does not establish how people will spend. The reported declines and expectations provide a snapshot of sentiment during the survey period; they do not, by themselves, show that household spending or sales have fallen. The increase in expected inflation and interest rates adds to the picture of consumer concerns, while expectations for stock prices remained broadly positive.
Three Months of Softer Confidence
The September result followed two prior months of softening, according to Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. The Expectations Index has now declined for three consecutive months. The current business-condition measure also crossed into negative territory for the first time since September 2024, while the labor market differential remained just above zero.
On a six-month moving-average basis, confidence trended downward across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Higher-income households generally remained more optimistic, but consumers in households earning $125,000 to $149,000 reported the steepest confidence decline over that period. These figures describe changes in survey responses; the source does not provide a causal breakdown of the group differences.
Survey Cannot Explain Each Cause
The preliminary results cover responses collected from September 1-23. The report notes that the survey period included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but it does not quantify how much either development influenced confidence. The available figures also do not establish whether weaker sentiment will lead to changes in household spending, hiring or business activity. The source material does not specify when final September results may be released.
Final Results and October Reading
The September figures are preliminary. Readers can look for any final results from The Conference Board and its next monthly confidence release to see whether the declines continue, stabilize or reverse. The next reading will help show whether the September pattern persists, but it will not by itself identify the causes of any change.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in preliminary September results.
What happened to consumers’ expectations?
The Expectations Index declined 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly drop. Net expectations for business conditions, the labor market and household income all fell.
Did consumers expect incomes to fall?
No. Net household income expectations remained positive at plus 2.5%, meaning the balance of responses still pointed to rising income, though expectations weakened compared with previous months.
What remains unknown about the September decline?
The report does not measure how much the rate hike or geopolitical tensions affected responses, or whether lower confidence will change consumer spending or business activity. The results are preliminary and cover responses through September 23.
Source: rss
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